Narendra Modi lost BJP this election. A final tally of 240 Lok Sabha seats, down from 303 in the previous Lok Sabha is a steep fall. When you consider that this happened in spite of Modi fighting with every possible instrument of state power and resources at his disposal, is indeed a humbling defeat.
Ordinarily, a Prime Minister who has been in power for two terms (10 years) is expected to face a degree of anti-incumbency. That is, unless you are Russia or North Korea. India is not North Korea, but Modi by no means is a democrat either. So the political headwinds one would expect a two-term government were to face were never really felt, and whatever heat the government should have felt on issues of rural distress, unemployment, and the breakdown of ‘law and order’ were never highlighted by the mainstream media.
Prominent corporate groups and blatant cronies (often the same set) who had already registered their overwhelming support for Modi through the now-illegal electoral bonds, remained staunchly in favour of the government. They were seduced b the illusion of the effectiveness of a strongman and the “double engine sarkar”. Political parties that attempted to mount a campaign against Modi immediately found themselves at a major disadvantage, with neither the funds nor the support of the country's innumerable media groups.
Finally, when the elections were held, the Election Commission of India showed itself to be an active accomplice of the ruling party, refusing to strike down blatant violations of the Moral Code of Conduct and striking down opposition nominations at will (like in Varanasi). The ECI probably came off looking the worst among them all in this election and it was embarrassing to watch them congratulate themselves on the conduct of a successful election, with apparently the least number of re-polls ordered.
Given this background naturally, the results came as a massive surprise. These will be analysed from every possible angle. Observers and analysts will do their best to understand why voters rejected Modi. A post-election opinion poll would throw up the most interesting findings.
What we know is that the rural economy was struggling. GDP growth rates may look decent but it hides underneath, several critical weaknesses. Rural wages have fallen in real terms, 83 crore Indians are in need of free food grains, unemployment is rampant, etc. Did that make a difference everywhere? Several other puzzles remain (for me, at least) - how did Uttar Pradesh turn? What went wrong in Ayodhya for the BJP? Has Hindutva run its course? How did Nitish Kumar retain Bihar? Etc.
Anyway…with abundant caution though, here are my principal takeaways:
The arithmetical logic held: the opposition alliance, INDIA, came together on an arithmetical logic and not necessarily one built on chemistry. And where they did not come together, as in Thrissur and Trivandrum (a near disaster) results were not great. Mamata’s brute dominance avoided such mishaps in Bengal. To challenge an extremely well funded political juggernaut, opposition consolidation is essential. This has been shown to work in a few assembly elections, and it worked this time at the national level.
“Save our constitution” is not a vacuous call as I had feared it was. Mainstream media ridiculed it, influential digital platforms ignored it, but Rahul Gandhi persevered. Narendra Modi, in his arrogant stupor, called for “400 paar” his men took turns to promise that they would change the constitution. I have no idea if that spooked voters, but there is no doubt that these are the foundations on which a progressive political campaign ought to be built.
This was an anti-Modi wave rather than a pro-INDIA one. I can hardly imagine that anyone voted for the Congress party imagining they would come to power in Delhi. Rather, it was a rejection of a ‘business as usual’-Modi - the divinity-invoking larger than life Modi. A key lesson must be that building a personality cult is a risky proposition - it evokes strong visceral and extreme reactions from voters. While there are swathes of masses who are swayed by the show of power and may not mind the hubris, it is equally likely large sections of the population find the naked display power distasteful.
At the end of the 2024 election season, the results have been very satisfying, mostly because the hubris of one man was struck down in style. Alongside, sycophants in the media have taken a massive hit and their professional credibility is at an all-time low. But this is not to mean that our democracy is not in bad shape.
Voters and elections are probably the most important components of a democracy, but the overall health of a democracy is determined by much more than just voting percentages and the technological infallibility of electronic voting machines.
Our institutions remain weak. As I have mentioned above, the ECI did not exactly cover themselves with glory. The health of a number of other pillars of democracy remains fragile - Parliament, Judiciary, media, investigative agencies, civil society, federalism, etc. Undoing the personality cult will need the media to take a less biased stance on how it reports on our polity. That in turn depends on the role of corporate houses who back or own much of the media houses in question.
Rebuilding these pillars will take time. In the meantime, Modi 3.0 will not be restrained as we imagine it might be - they haven’t fallen short enough for effective checks and balances within the Executive.
So it is by no means the time to celebrate. We have much to do to get back to being known as a normal, functioning democracy. Are the opposition parties up to the task? The upcoming state elections will give us a sense of what is in store…