Modi 3.0 - a fixed match in a democracy in crisis
The 2024 General Elections are nearly upon us. This is Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s election - a referendum if you like. And let’s be real - the only question is, will the slogan of ‘300 paar’ come true?
Even as Modi's re-election seems guaranteed, this is an India whose democracy is in crisis and Modi 3.0 will only deepen this crisis. The upcoming elections now resemble a fixed match. Here are some reasons why:
India is now an economy whose headline figures flatter to deceive. While aggregates look favourable - GDP growth rates are all that people will hear about - it hides underneath, several critical weaknesses. Infrastructure development is for all to see, but the domestic private sector has not followed up with investments of their own. There are no serious public debates why. Instead, you have videos of Modi cosplaying in a variety of settings and claiming that anywhere you look, Bharat ka danka baj raha hai. Similarly, inflation hasn’t been an issue in the media, but food insecurity seems all pervasive as 830 million Indians are still dependent on free food grains from the government. Reports of income inequality have not really made a dent in the government’s popularity. The jobs crisis is staring us in the face as India has seen an increase in its agricultural workforce, with nearly half of India's workers contributing to about a seventh of our GDP. But no fixes will be found, because these are no longer mainstream issues that matter to Modi, BJP or to the media. What is the point of such a government, beyond it being a power-grab?
Rampant disinformation and misinformation campaigns have become the norm - all in favour of the ruling party, all intended to exaggerate achievements, downplay failures, polarise the population on religious lines, demonise minorities and opposition voices and above all, the legend of a single ‘dear leader’ have been propagated with the benefit of endless monetary resources that are seemingly easily available to the largest political party in the world, the BJP. Cynical politics that exacerbates and exploits societal divisions and grievances (real or imagined) has become the norm under Modi. This will continue. Hindu Rashtra will take root - although only as an insecure, xenophobic entity.
Institutions are fully under control of a single political party - with the possible exception of the Supreme Court (only on occasion), most other institutions have been enlisted. The state has come to resemble a mafia, and the Parliament is both completely toothless and just an adornment. The idea of a ‘committed bureaucracy’ has been implemented with near totality. Academic institutions too have been bent into shape. Investigative agencies are no longer merely caged parrots - they have been let loose upon a set of identified targets. Tainted opposition leaders are queuing to join the BJP - apparently that's the only way they can feel safe - again, reinforcing a culture where the worst political manoeuvres are lauded as masterstrokes.
A fragmented opposition will be unable to resist irreversible changes to the Constitution. Partly as a result of all the external pressures (lack of funds, being targeted by agencies, adverse media coverage) and partly as a result of internal incoherence, there are now only a few pockets of resistance, most visibly in West Bengal and South India, and to a lesser extent perhaps in Punjab and Himachal. Southern India will be further marginalised once the delimitation excercise is carried out as the proportion of their seats will further reduce from what it is now. The fiscal compact that has kept the country running will come under strain. In the coming months, Modi will do everything he can to alter the basic framework of government and elections - convinced that no opposition can stand in his way.
From fighting critics to eliminating dissent - this has been achieved both in the real and the virtual worlds - Youtube channels of opposition voices are being taken down; tweets and Facebook posts have long been under attack, etc. Street protests are branded anti-national, student activists have been jailed, university campuses muzzled, etc. ‘Jail, not bail’ seems to be the adage of new India. As Modi's increasingly authoritarian rule continues, the state will seek to silence every voice.
Covid19 inflicted two waves of disasters upon the country. The shoddy decision making on lockdowns in 2020 resulted in a humanitarian tragedy involving migrant workers stranded in cities without any support from the government of their employers. The unwillingness to prepare for a second wave and all-round incompetence led to the catastrophic death toll in 2021. Meanwhile, fraudulent businesses with political connections (like Patanjali) peddled fake medicines that claimed to cure Covid19. And nothing was done. Modi has emerged unscathed from this mismanagement. How so? After demonetisation, Covid19 presented yet another instance of where Modi successfully tested the tensile strength of the population.
And for all of the above, it is evident that an exceedingly pliant media is an essential feature. This has already happened. Most of India’s mainstream media have already sworn allegiance to Modi. Absolutely no issues of importance are discussed on say our television news and those that are, are discussed in a manner that's partisan beyond belief. For instance, the media has ensured that no issues of corruption or cronyism stick to Modi, and even the most blatant misuse of government agencies to target the political opposition doesn't make news. Similarly, Manipur continues to burn and the central government stands by helpless. Even this has not cast a shadow on Modi's record, of one were to go by India's media. This will only get worse. India has a large enough market that media will continue to sell enough of its wares to survive, continue to keep people garbage and thus keep playing it's role in keeping Modi in power. Until a higher bidder comes along.
Modi 3.0 is coming - this is a fixed match. In the form of Hindu Rashtra, a long winter is upon our democracy.